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After a slow start to the year, several restaurant chains are due to emerge as the winners this earnings season, according to Jefferies. First of all, same-store sales only modestly recovered in March to around flat, while the key metric was down 4.5% in January and 0.6% in February, analyst Andy Barish wrote. He added customer traffic remains challenged as well, although this varies from restaurant brand to restaurant brand, while consumers have simultaneously grown more cautious about their spending. Jefferies believes that the restaurant chain's earnings per share will come in line, while same-store sales are more likely to have some upside. Barish sees first-quarter U.S. same-store sales and earnings per share estimates coming in line with analyst expectations, while EBITDA could surprise to the upside.
Persons: Andy Barish, Barish, BJ's, Jefferies, EBITDA, McDonald, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Jefferies, Investors, BJ's Locations: California, CA, remodels, Brazil, McDonald's
Fast-food giants are rapidly deploying more order kiosks in the US. AdvertisementMajor US fast-food chains plan to aggressively add more digital order kiosks to their restaurants – and bring in bigger checks in the process. They make up "well over" half of its in-restaurant orders at these locations, CFO Katie Fogertey told investors in November. As well as labor savings, kiosk orders "tend to skew to dine-in" and thus use less packaging than other digital orders, she said. In the US, digital orders currently make up just 15% of Burger King's sales.
Persons: Patrick Doyle, , Burger, Josh Kobza, Shack, Katie Fogertey, Chris Turner, Turner, Sharon Zackfia, William Blair, Fogertey, Grace Dean, Randy Garutti, cashiers, Fogerty, Andy Barish, Jon Tower, Kobza, Zackfia, Barish, Popeyes, Tim Hortons Organizations: Service, Restaurant Brands, Brands, Taco Bell, KFC, Business, Jefferies, Citi, Burger, Firehouse, North Star Locations: Taco, China, London, millennials
Wells Fargo raised its price target on Bank of America, now calling for more than 15% upside. Evercore ISI hiked its price target on the consumer products company to $150 per share from $133. Power has a $90 price target on the cloud software stock, implying shares can rally 44.5% in the next year. Forbes' $425 price target implies the stock can climb 43.1% from Wednesday's ending price. Analyst Mike Mayo raised his price target for the bank stock by $4 to $44, implying a 16.4% upside over Wednesday's close.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Clark, Javier Escalante, Escalante, KMB, — Jesse Pound, Jefferies, Portillo's, Andy Barish, Barish, — Brian Evans, Jason Gursky, Wednesday's, shakeup, Gursky, Alex Harring, Baird, William Power, — Alex Harring, Steven Forbes, Forbes, RH, BofA, Cintas, Heather Balsky, Balsky, Robinhood, Alex Markgraff, Markgraff, TD Cowen, John Blackledge, Grindr, Blackledge, It's, it's, Estee Lauder, Bryan Spillane, Spillane, Estee, Tom Ford, Joseph Greff, Greff, FanDuel, Vikram Gandhi, Gandhi, Wells, Bank of America Wells, Mike Mayo, Mayo, Goliath Organizations: CNBC, Bank of America, HSBC, Allstate, Kimberly, Staples, ISI, Citi, Boeing, Alaska Airlines, Dow Jones, UC, Guggenheim, RH's, FactSet, Estee Lauder Bank of America, JPMorgan, Allstate Allstate Locations: Portillo's, Five9, Estee, New Jersey, Wednesday's
Read previewCalifornia is raising the minimum wage for fast-food workers to $20 an hour – and a much wider group of employees could see bigger paychecks. If limited-service restaurants raise their wages, "everybody is going to have to adopt because it's a free market," Danilo Gargiulo, a Bernstein analyst, said. Fast-food and fast-casual chains have already said they plan to raise their menu prices in California to offset the higher wages. The Cheesecake Factory's CFO Matt Clark told investors in November that the minimum wage could have a "ripple effect" beyond just limited-service restaurants. He added that the legislation would cause the price gap between limited- and full-service restaurants to narrow.
Persons: , Brian Vaccaro, Raymond James, It'll, Andy Barish, Danilo Gargiulo, Bernstein, Matt Clark, Clark, Vaccaro, Sharon Zackfia, William Blair, Greg Levin, we've, Levin, they're, Zackfia Organizations: Service, Business, Jefferies, US Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: California, pretzels . California
AdvertisementBurgers, tacos, and pizzas will get more expensiveDiners should expect to pay more as fast-food restaurants put menu prices up to offset higher wages. But restaurants already paying workers higher wages will feel less of an impact from the new legislation. Jon Tower, an analyst at Citi, said the higher prices could be hard for some diners to accept. However, higher wages at McDonald's, Subway, and Burger King will likely prompt other employers to offer higher pay so they can compete for labor. AdvertisementPeople will have more money to dine outAs fast-food workers' wages increase, they'll actually have more disposable income to spend dining out.
Persons: , Gavin Newsom, It's, Jack, Sharon Zackfia, William Blair, Andy Barish, Sara Senatore, Chris Kempczinski, they're, Jon Tower, Barish, Zackfia, Burger, Danilo Gargiulo, Bernstein, Matt Clark Organizations: Service, Golden State, Gov, Jefferies, Bank of America, Citi, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: California, McDonald's
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJefferies' Andy Barish on McDonald's earnings: Straightforward quarter with better operating marginsAndy Barish, Jefferies equity analyst, joins 'Squawk Box' to break down McDonald's quarterly earnings results, which beat earnings estimate but missed on revenue as international markets lagged.
Persons: Email Jefferies, Andy Barish Organizations: Jefferies
Jefferies' Andy Barish on consumer appetite for restaurants
  + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJefferies' Andy Barish on consumer appetite for restaurantsAndy Barish, Jefferies managing director, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss consumer spending in the restaurant sector.
Persons: Email Jefferies, Andy Barish, Jefferies
Tuesday General Motors is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a call at 8:30 a.m. What history shows: GM earnings beat earnings expectations 86% of the time, according to Bespoke. Alphabet is set to report earnings after the bell, with management slated to hold a call at 5 p.m. This quarter: Earnings for the tech giant are expected to have grown by 10% from the year-earlier period, per Refinitiv. What history shows: Bespoke data shows Alphabet earnings beat expectations 68% of the time, and the stock rises more than 1% on earnings day.
Persons: Michael Wayland, GM's EVs, GOOGL, Jennifer Elias, Goldman Sachs, Kash Rangan, Rangan, Peter Grom, Leslie Josephs, Max, Wells, Zachary Fadem, Jonathan Vanian, Meta, Refinitiv, Jefferies, Andy Barish, LUV, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: General Motors, Microsoft, Refinitiv, CNBC, company's, Silverado, United Auto Workers union, Investors, Management, PepsiCo, UBS, Boeing, Corporate, Twitter, Meta, Southwest Airlines, U.S, Southwest Locations: U.S, FactSet
It's still early in the earnings season, but Wall Street thinks burrito chain Chipotle is the biggest winner. The firm raised its price target to $1,800 from $1,550, which was about 1% upside compared to Tuesday's closing price. He added that his firm "can't find any flaws in the results" and raised its price target to $2,175 per share from $1,825. Senatore increased her price target on the stock to $2,200 per share from $1,850. Wells Fargo also hiked its price target on the burrito chain to $2,050 from $1,900.
Starbucks is making changes to its Starbucks Rewards program on February 13. With customers highly likely to customize these drinks with add-ons, that will generate "higher tickets and higher margins" for Starbucks, BofA said. The new rewards program might give Starbucks a lift if the economy tanks in the coming months. "In a macro slowdown, we believe the power of Starbucks Rewards will insulate the company, a key distinction from prior downturns," BofA said. Starbucks Rewards members accounted for 55% of sales at US company-operated stores, Starbucks said in a fourth-quarter earnings call.
It's time to move to the sidelines on Starbucks , according to Jefferies. Analyst Andy Barish downgraded the coffee chain to hold from buy, saying shares are likely going to trade in a narrow range after their outperformance this year. Additionally, the analyst is concerned a recession in the second half of calendar year 2023, or in the first half of 2024, will hurt discretionary spending and same-store sales at the coffee chain. Our FY23/24 U.S. SSS ests are 7%/5% vs guide 7-9% in each year and Cons 8%/6%," Barish wrote. Starbucks shares are down about 16% in 2022, better than the S & P 500's more than 19% decline.
Starbucks previously reported that premium add-ons like syrups are a $1 billion business. A drop in traffic amid a looming 2023 recession could also hit Starbucks. Jefferies is "baking into our forecast" that a recession will lower US same-store sales at Starbucks due to negative traffic growth, Barish said. Those modifiers are big business for Starbucks, according to Sara Trilling, president of Starbucks North America. Add-ons are a $1 billion "high margin" business for Starbucks that has doubled since 2019, the company said during the November call.
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